Reconsidering Annual Predictions

This week is the tippy-top of the peak season for the annual prediction business. Stories are rolling out either reflecting on the accuracy of 2010 forecasts or presenting 2011 projections. These offerings have a brief shelf life, then get tucked away and are largely forgotten. From the middle of December until early January, a select few are dusted off for a comparison between the year's history and what was anticipated.

Roger Nusbaum, in his thoughtful Random Roger financial blog, pointed out the difficulty of a given forecast fitting neatly into a calendar year. This wise observation, if embraced, would take the steam out of many year-end anxieties characterized by ardent New Year's resolutions. That's easier said than done. The December holidays offer a ready-made break for planning, along with the psychologically potent atmosphere of renewal associated with the new calendar year.

Nusbaum pointed out that an entire stock market cycle is a better, more sensible time frame for financial forecasts. If one extends that concept to other endeavors, the benefits could be substantial. That sounds like a good way to start the new year.

The Great Depression in Color

Roger Nusbaum, in his respected personal finance blog Random Roger, did a very unlikely, yet entirely admirable thing in comments he posted today on his site. He discussed color photographs taken during the later years of the Great Depression in the United States. He also included a link to a Denver Post blog that shows the images.

The pictures originally appeared in a 2006 Library of Congress exhibit called "Bound for Glory: America in Color." My favorite so far (shown above) is #18, Russell Lee's "saying grace before the barbeque dinner at the New Mexico Fair." The principal subjects possess an uncalculated modesty, while remaining rooted in their worldly concerns. The secondary subjects inhabit the frame, but appear to be independent of the major figures. Lee's willingness to have multiple, barely joined subjects in the frame seems surprisingly tangent to contemporary visual sensibilities.

I hope you take a few minutes to enjoy these explorations in color photography.