Italian Court Convicts Seismologists for Inaccurate Earthquake Prediction

Enzo Boschi
(Image: laquila.blog.rainews24.it)

Four years ago, an earthquake scrambled L'Aquila, an Italian mountain city possessing some historic pedigree. Over 300 people died as a result of the quake. Subsequent events included Italian prosecutors bringing manslaughter charges against a half-dozen seismologists and a government official. Amazingly, a year ago a court found the Earthquake Seven guilty.

The complicated, slow-moving creature known as the Italian judicial system has given the convicted scientists time to rouse international awareness of their plight. A recent Los Angeles Times story noted how one of the seismologists, Enzo Boschi, wrote a Science piece stating his case. One quote from the article articulates the scientist's position:

I have been sentenced to 6 years of imprisonment for failing to give adequate advance warning to the population of L'Aquila, a city in the Abruzzo region of Italy, about the risk of the 6 April 2009 earthquake that lead to 309 deaths. I have been found guilty despite the illogical charges and accusations that set dangerous precedents for the future of the scientific process.

Apparently, prosecutors did not grasp that seismologists cannot predict earthquakes. Can they suggest where earthquakes are more likely to occur than other areas? Yes. That's a far cry from an "X marks the spot" prediction expectation. Yet, the Italian, Inquisition-style prosecution seems far more in tune with rulings from religiously oriented kangaroo courts than enlightened jurists. Does this Italian court decision sound like a glorious moment in the "rule of law"?