Jeb Bush, the 2012 Presidential Race, and 2016

Jeb Bush (right) with George H.W. Bush (left) and Barbara Bush. 

For all the fuss and fire about lightweight GOP presidential candidates, party heavyweight Jeb Bush has notably stayed on the sidelines through the fracas. While it appears Bush 41/Yale has given Mitt Romney/Harvard a Don Corleone-esque nod of approval, Jeb has been circumspect with his opinion. The Bush's son's actions matter. As the heir apparent to the Bush political dynasty, Jeb has profound clout among Republican party regulars and funders. Consequently, his silence on the various candidates panting to run against Barack Obama has impact that ripples through the entire GOP relationship network. A Washington Post article on a slow-news Christmas Day explores this situation. Keep in mind that slow-news days are excellent times for insider topics to quietly reach a wider audience.

The story intriguingly hints at Jeb's ambitions for the 2016 presidential race. That scenario makes a great deal of sense, especially as Romney is made to order as the GOP's 2012 presidential sacrificial lamb. Jeb wants no part of a contest against Obama, and Jeb would like to put a leash around the GOP's extreme right-wingers. The 2012 presidential campaign will accomplish both goals, while clearing the way for Jeb to be both the anti-Obama is 2016 and a GOP candidate suburban voters, Hispanic voters, and conservative-leaning women can comfortably vote for. (I feel the heavyweight presidential campaign will be in 2016, and it will be US politics' version of the Thrilla in Manila: Jeb Bush vs Hillary Rodham Clinton.)

The relationship between the Big O and JB is a curious one. I noted in a March 2011 post that Bush and Obama jointly spoke at a Miami event focusing on K-12 education. Jeb's public stance is that Obama is beatable in 2012. However, Bush does not embrace reactionary positions on selected social issues, such as immigration and education. In fact, some Obama Administration policies are closely aligned to Jeb's notions, and Bush has wisely kept quiet on those fronts. In the end, Obama's directions will be easier for a Bush administration to modify than those of the GOP's ideologically motivated factions.

President Obama and Jeb Bush at March 2011 event in Miami.
Secretary of Education Arne Duncan is in the middle.
(Photo from politico.com)