NFL Predictions for 2014 Season

NFL predictions are among my pet indulgences and not-so-guilty pleasures. Do I have any money on this? Not yet.

I haven't seen any team play, so my predictions are based on reading, instinct, and preference. Well, the regular season begins in four days, and here are my thoughts on what will emerge:

NFC East -- Philly wins the division by default. Romo is physically fragile. Eli is emotionally fragile. Skins will score points, but you just don't get that winning feeling from them.

NFC North -- Lots of action here. Packers are the sexy pick, but their schedule is a daunting one. Bears win the division and lose their playoff game. Based on track record, would you trust your championship run to Jay Cutler? Lions will score a lot of points and give up even more. Vikings will play outdoors in Minnesota in December on a bad playing surface -- ugh.

NFC South -- Sean Payton + Drew Brees are too much for the division. Other NFC teams might pass the hat to pay teams to keep the Saints from getting best conference record. Saints will probably go undefeated at home, regular season and playoffs. (They're 21-4 at the Superdome since 2011.) Panthers and Bucs will field formidable defensive forces, but it's hard to win when you don't score. Don't bother me about the Falcons: I don't buy Matt Ryan and who is the running back, anyway?

NFC West -- 49ers off-field issues staring to take a toll. It's also Harbaugh's contract year, team's all-pro guard wants more money and/or out, and D really misses Bowman. 49ers kept Aldon Smith, a two-time offender (not including a bomb threat he made at an airport security checkpoint, for which TSA filed no charges.) New stadium's turf is a disaster. Something just doesn't feel right by the Bay. Which brings us to Seattle, which has looked good in pre-season. That said, it is very, very difficult to defend a championship and schedule is very difficult. I don't think Seattle goes unbeaten at home: Packers (who should have won last year's game in Seattle) will win this Thursday. Cardinals have too many defensive injuries and defections, and Rams stand a chance of going 4-12.

AFC East -- Everyone took Patriots' 12-4 record last year for granted. All Brady and Belichick accomplished was to rack up wins with a shirts-and-skins receiving group and a suspect defense. They'll win the division again, mostly because the other division teams are lousy. Dolphins need an offensive line and leadership; they currently lack both. Jets need cornerbacks; Ryan squeezed eight wins from a very bad team last year, and he may have to repeat the trick this time around. Buffalo's offense doesn't scare anyone. Also, this is a franchise in transition and is likely to move (along with Jacksonville, Oakland, and St. Louis). As a former upstate New York resident, that passing saddens me.

AFC North -- Steelers have the division's best QB and best coach (tied with Harbaugh). They still seem in transition, though, into a younger, faster squad. Cincy has the best team on paper, although they'll miss DE Michael Johnson, who went to join Lovie Smith in Tampa. A healthy Ravens team could pull off a playoff slot. Their problem is that too much depends upon Steve Smith having something left in the tank, and Ray Rice's level of play. I think Baltimore ends up a game short of the playoffs. Browns might have best CB duo in the NFL, but look lost on offense. Their best move was to sit Manziel down, let him learn the game, and let Hoyer take the punishment. It's a cold world, sometimes, but especially so in Cleveland.

AFC South -- Everyone has conceded this one to Indy. Don't be surprised if the Titans make the playoffs (and get knocked out quickly). Why? Whisenhunt is a good coach, the team has a good O line and respectable defense, and they play under the radar. Clowney and Watt will be worth the price of admission, and the Texans upgraded their coaching with O'Brien. A seven-win season would be a strong move for Houston (they were 2-14 last year). Jacksonville is the team no one will want to play this year: their D is very strong, they're a small market team everyone is supposed to beat, and they play hard, home and away.

AFC West -- The only question is how many regular season games the Broncos will win: twelve is a number. Best addition was Ryan Clady, the Pro Bowl OT who was injured for most of last season. Chiefs' issues from last year remain unresolved, thus I expect 8-8 or 9-7. Chargers have a difficult schedule and Raiders are an expansion team that wants to move to LA.

NFC Playoffs -- Philly, Bears, Packers, Saints, San Francisco, Seattle
AFC Playoffs -- Patriots, Cincy, Titans, Steelers, Colts, Broncos