NFL Predictions for 2014 Season

NFL predictions are among my pet indulgences and not-so-guilty pleasures. Do I have any money on this? Not yet.

I haven't seen any team play, so my predictions are based on reading, instinct, and preference. Well, the regular season begins in four days, and here are my thoughts on what will emerge:

NFC East -- Philly wins the division by default. Romo is physically fragile. Eli is emotionally fragile. Skins will score points, but you just don't get that winning feeling from them.

NFC North -- Lots of action here. Packers are the sexy pick, but their schedule is a daunting one. Bears win the division and lose their playoff game. Based on track record, would you trust your championship run to Jay Cutler? Lions will score a lot of points and give up even more. Vikings will play outdoors in Minnesota in December on a bad playing surface -- ugh.

NFC South -- Sean Payton + Drew Brees are too much for the division. Other NFC teams might pass the hat to pay teams to keep the Saints from getting best conference record. Saints will probably go undefeated at home, regular season and playoffs. (They're 21-4 at the Superdome since 2011.) Panthers and Bucs will field formidable defensive forces, but it's hard to win when you don't score. Don't bother me about the Falcons: I don't buy Matt Ryan and who is the running back, anyway?

NFC West -- 49ers off-field issues staring to take a toll. It's also Harbaugh's contract year, team's all-pro guard wants more money and/or out, and D really misses Bowman. 49ers kept Aldon Smith, a two-time offender (not including a bomb threat he made at an airport security checkpoint, for which TSA filed no charges.) New stadium's turf is a disaster. Something just doesn't feel right by the Bay. Which brings us to Seattle, which has looked good in pre-season. That said, it is very, very difficult to defend a championship and schedule is very difficult. I don't think Seattle goes unbeaten at home: Packers (who should have won last year's game in Seattle) will win this Thursday. Cardinals have too many defensive injuries and defections, and Rams stand a chance of going 4-12.

AFC East -- Everyone took Patriots' 12-4 record last year for granted. All Brady and Belichick accomplished was to rack up wins with a shirts-and-skins receiving group and a suspect defense. They'll win the division again, mostly because the other division teams are lousy. Dolphins need an offensive line and leadership; they currently lack both. Jets need cornerbacks; Ryan squeezed eight wins from a very bad team last year, and he may have to repeat the trick this time around. Buffalo's offense doesn't scare anyone. Also, this is a franchise in transition and is likely to move (along with Jacksonville, Oakland, and St. Louis). As a former upstate New York resident, that passing saddens me.

AFC North -- Steelers have the division's best QB and best coach (tied with Harbaugh). They still seem in transition, though, into a younger, faster squad. Cincy has the best team on paper, although they'll miss DE Michael Johnson, who went to join Lovie Smith in Tampa. A healthy Ravens team could pull off a playoff slot. Their problem is that too much depends upon Steve Smith having something left in the tank, and Ray Rice's level of play. I think Baltimore ends up a game short of the playoffs. Browns might have best CB duo in the NFL, but look lost on offense. Their best move was to sit Manziel down, let him learn the game, and let Hoyer take the punishment. It's a cold world, sometimes, but especially so in Cleveland.

AFC South -- Everyone has conceded this one to Indy. Don't be surprised if the Titans make the playoffs (and get knocked out quickly). Why? Whisenhunt is a good coach, the team has a good O line and respectable defense, and they play under the radar. Clowney and Watt will be worth the price of admission, and the Texans upgraded their coaching with O'Brien. A seven-win season would be a strong move for Houston (they were 2-14 last year). Jacksonville is the team no one will want to play this year: their D is very strong, they're a small market team everyone is supposed to beat, and they play hard, home and away.

AFC West -- The only question is how many regular season games the Broncos will win: twelve is a number. Best addition was Ryan Clady, the Pro Bowl OT who was injured for most of last season. Chiefs' issues from last year remain unresolved, thus I expect 8-8 or 9-7. Chargers have a difficult schedule and Raiders are an expansion team that wants to move to LA.

NFC Playoffs -- Philly, Bears, Packers, Saints, San Francisco, Seattle
AFC Playoffs -- Patriots, Cincy, Titans, Steelers, Colts, Broncos

New York Evolving Into the Global One-Percent's "Safety Deposit Box"

My wife and I visited two native New Yorkers who moved to the outside arc of occasionally commutable distance from Gotham. They live an entirely agreeable life, with views of hills and farmers' fields from their first floor windows. Neither the husband nor the wife regretted their departure from permanent residence in New York. In their view, it was time to go.

We jointly noted how Whole Foods Brooklyn, where they lived before the wild real estate rush into the borough, was rapidly approaching Manhattan-level rent rates and ownership prices. A recent New York Times article observed how aspirational couples and individuals can no longer hope to live in "commutable" Brooklyn. They now are supposedly eyeing Queens and selected New Jersey suburbs. That sounds like retreat for those who imagined New York life consisted of living on Manhattan Island or the portion of Long Island called Brooklyn.

Part of the real estate squeeze comes from the rush of wealthy international buyers purchasing apartments and townhouses. Why should anyone care? Well, these buyers are using New York real estate as their tangible rainy day fund. A BBC report quoted real estate executive Jonathan Miller as characterizing the buying and construction frenzy this way:

I like to describe the phenomenon as: we're building the world's most expensive bank safe deposit boxes.

So how does your rainy day fund look, eh?

Elvis Presley's "Lost" BMW To Be Displayed

Elvis Presley's BMW 507 Roadster
on display in Munich
(Image: bmwblog.com)

During Elvis Presley's tour of duty in Germany, he purchased a BMW 507 Roadster. The story, as related by Horatiu Boeriu in bmwblog.com, has some twists and turns (seems suitable for The King). Elvis had the car's color changed from its original white to red, purportedly because Elvis really wanted a red Porsche Spyder and couldn't obtain one. Presley eventually sold his BMW to an Alabama disc jockey. The Beemer, after seeing some action as a drag racing vehicle, ended up in a dusty California warehouse and seemed destined for a rusty obscurity. The car's current owner recently shipped the iconic vehicle to BMW's home office in Munich. The firm intends to exhibit the car, and later restore Elvis' 507 to its original state and remind visitors of its former glamour.

I know a couple of car enthusiasts who would welcome an opportunity to test drive Elvis' machine. I would, too, just to say I have driven in the King's chariot.

Silicon Valley Hotel Features Robotic Butler

At Your Service....
(Image: money.msn.com)

Guests at Silicon Valley's Aloft Hotel will soon experience butler service from a robot. According to a Mercury News blog post, the unnamed device will complete training and begin live action next week. It's not clear what the bot's capabilities are. In all likelihood, routine deliveries should be anticipated. Just don't expect the machine to clean, do windows, or freshen the toilet. That work remains quite human.

DEA Bribes Obtained Amtrak Passenger Information

Image: wnyc.org

According to a story in today's Washington Post, DEA agents spent nearly two decades illegally obtaining personal information about Amtrak passengers. The info sweep included credit card information, passport numbers, dates of birth, and emergency contact names. In exchange, the DEA paid their Amtrak source over three-quarter of a million dollars. How the arrangement reached the light of day was not revealed in the Post article. The irony is that the information the DEA wanted could have easily been obtained via legal means. Ah, but why do things the easy way?

I Want to be a Crime Novelist

Writers, like all artists, are concerned with representing reality, to create a more absolute and complete reality than reality itself. They must, if they are to accomplish this, assume a moral position, a clearly conceived political, social, and philosophical attitude; in consequence, their beliefs are, of course, going to find their way into their work. What artists believe, however, is of secondary importance, ancillary to the work itself. A writer survives in spite of his beliefs.

From the Paris Review "The Art of Fiction No. 6" interview of Alberto Moravia.

Since mid-June, I thought about Moravia's observation. At times, my locations shaped my considerations of his assertion. I thought about them while at a trade show in Las Vegas, a photography opening in Houston, sales meetings at a Club Med, along a beach on Florida's Atlantic coast, in hotel rooms outside Chicago, at a friend's home in Los Angeles, with my wife over dinner in hipster Brooklyn, and in bluntly unfashionable Newark. Understanding these environments became quickly challenging without what Moravia characterized as a "moral position." Since I lacked such a foundation, writing about them became an elusive endeavor.

This realization deeply bothered me, and connected with my deep dissatisfaction with the current unwillingness of most Americans to plainly and honestly consider what's happening in their own country. That reticence became most striking to me while watching TV in airport waiting areas. I came to the conclusion, from the mindless entertainment programs and shallow broadcast news reporting, that people just don't want to know very much. They may demand reinforcement of their prejudices, but that's a long way from a commitment to clarity, reason, and action. One of the few chinks in this armor is the crime novel, which retain a mass popularity with American readers and which can dive deeply into America's dark side.

Currently, I'm reading a Leonardo Sciascia short story collection titled The Wine-Dark Sea. He was the first significant Italian author to break silence about the Sicilian Mafia. Sciascia did this, not out of some desire to create lurid novels and motion pictures, but to address the reality of Sicilian lives. Other Italian novelists have created detective or mystery novels in which Italian society's contradictions and darker side can be usefully explored. Some of these novelists have quite interesting backgrounds, at least from my initial investigation of their work and biographies. (One respected crime fiction writer is an active jurist.) However, I'm just learning about them, the variety of their work, and their respective "moral positions."

While I was brooding about Moravia and Italian crime fiction, my wife and I began to discuss the possibility of a trip to Rome. She wants to photograph there. I've been hesitant to visit; I lived there over thirty years ago and contemplating a return stirred up a number of questions and personal history I simultaneously dread and cherish. Breaking that admittedly harmful psychological chain required something more than a walk down the Eternal City's memory lane.  Seeing the Roman settings for spaghetti mysteries (thank you, Sergio Leone) will help drive me, inspire me toward the type of fiction I am committed to creating.

My conclusion led me to contemplate writing Italian-style crime novels as a way for me to express our national reality from a Moravian perspective. I find America having much in common with Italian-style corruption. That realization is one reason why I so admire The Wire, which depicted urban reality with a clear perspective. Unsurprisingly, the series never won a major award. However, it's notable that Mad Men and Sex and the City, two popular TV series about New York-based "reality," were necessarily classist fantasies that lacked any "moral position." And yes, they won lots of awards.

I'm looking forward to writing about the real world, although I don't have any idea how it will evolve or become tangible. It's surely better than fantasyland.